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USFS- Wildfire forecast

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  • USFS- Wildfire forecast

    Forest Service models predict increased fire severity, massive fire
    in 2035
    By ROBERT GEHRKE
    Associated Press Writer
    WASHINGTON (AP) - Forest Service scientists predict wildfires
    will become more severe as a half-century-long dry spell persists,
    peaking with a fire of unprecedented size around 2035.
    The blaze could destroy some 2.1 billion metric tons of trees
    and plants, according to computer models that monitor short-term
    and long-term weather patterns and predict the growth of vegetation
    in the national forests.
    Mark Rey, the Agriculture Department undersecretary in charge of
    the Forest Service, told the House Agriculture Committee on
    Wednesday that the country is in the midst of a dry cycle after
    several decades of wetter-than-normal conditions through the 1970s.
    The dry cycle is expected to last for several more decades.
    Coupled with aggressive firefighting efforts that have kept
    forests from burning naturally and predicted a warming trend that
    spurs growth of vegetation, wildfires are expected to be more
    severe in the coming decades.
    "We're going to experience some significant fire years for the
    foreseeable future," Rey said, adding that the predicted fire
    around 2035 "is going to be a real corker."
    Under an alternate forecast, which assumes temperatures will
    warm more slowly, fire activity would increase more gradually.
    Data on how much vegetation was destroyed in the 2000 and 2002
    fire seasons, which were among the worst on record, was not
    included in the report.
    In 1988, roughly 1.7 billion tons of vegetation were destroyed
    as blazes tore through thick stands of tall trees in Yellowstone
    and elsewhere - the most destructive year since 1895, the first
    year for which information was available. Nearly 7.4 million acres
    burned in 1988.
    ---
    On the Net:
    Forest Service: http://www.fs.fed.us/

    (Copyright 2003 by The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved.)
    Proudly serving as the IACOJ Minister of Information & Propoganda!
    Be Safe! Lookouts-Awareness-Communications-Escape Routes-Safety Zones

    *Gathering Crust Since 1968*
    On the web at www.section2wildfire.com

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