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USFS- Wildfire forecast
Forest Service models predict increased fire severity, massive fire
in 2035
By ROBERT GEHRKE
Associated Press Writer
WASHINGTON (AP) - Forest Service scientists predict wildfires
will become more severe as a half-century-long dry spell persists,
peaking with a fire of unprecedented size around 2035.
The blaze could destroy some 2.1 billion metric tons of trees
and plants, according to computer models that monitor short-term
and long-term weather patterns and predict the growth of vegetation
in the national forests.
Mark Rey, the Agriculture Department undersecretary in charge of
the Forest Service, told the House Agriculture Committee on
Wednesday that the country is in the midst of a dry cycle after
several decades of wetter-than-normal conditions through the 1970s.
The dry cycle is expected to last for several more decades.
Coupled with aggressive firefighting efforts that have kept
forests from burning naturally and predicted a warming trend that
spurs growth of vegetation, wildfires are expected to be more
severe in the coming decades.
"We're going to experience some significant fire years for the
foreseeable future," Rey said, adding that the predicted fire
around 2035 "is going to be a real corker."
Under an alternate forecast, which assumes temperatures will
warm more slowly, fire activity would increase more gradually.
Data on how much vegetation was destroyed in the 2000 and 2002
fire seasons, which were among the worst on record, was not
included in the report.
In 1988, roughly 1.7 billion tons of vegetation were destroyed
as blazes tore through thick stands of tall trees in Yellowstone
and elsewhere - the most destructive year since 1895, the first
year for which information was available. Nearly 7.4 million acres
burned in 1988.
---
On the Net:
Forest Service: http://www.fs.fed.us/
(Copyright 2003 by The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved.)
in 2035
By ROBERT GEHRKE
Associated Press Writer
WASHINGTON (AP) - Forest Service scientists predict wildfires
will become more severe as a half-century-long dry spell persists,
peaking with a fire of unprecedented size around 2035.
The blaze could destroy some 2.1 billion metric tons of trees
and plants, according to computer models that monitor short-term
and long-term weather patterns and predict the growth of vegetation
in the national forests.
Mark Rey, the Agriculture Department undersecretary in charge of
the Forest Service, told the House Agriculture Committee on
Wednesday that the country is in the midst of a dry cycle after
several decades of wetter-than-normal conditions through the 1970s.
The dry cycle is expected to last for several more decades.
Coupled with aggressive firefighting efforts that have kept
forests from burning naturally and predicted a warming trend that
spurs growth of vegetation, wildfires are expected to be more
severe in the coming decades.
"We're going to experience some significant fire years for the
foreseeable future," Rey said, adding that the predicted fire
around 2035 "is going to be a real corker."
Under an alternate forecast, which assumes temperatures will
warm more slowly, fire activity would increase more gradually.
Data on how much vegetation was destroyed in the 2000 and 2002
fire seasons, which were among the worst on record, was not
included in the report.
In 1988, roughly 1.7 billion tons of vegetation were destroyed
as blazes tore through thick stands of tall trees in Yellowstone
and elsewhere - the most destructive year since 1895, the first
year for which information was available. Nearly 7.4 million acres
burned in 1988.
---
On the Net:
Forest Service: http://www.fs.fed.us/
(Copyright 2003 by The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved.)