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Chicken sh*t Nancy Pelosi!!!!!

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  • Supply and Demand is the overly simplistic view that one learns in the third grade. Commodities are like stocks. If it was as simple as supply and demand it would be easy to make a fortune in these markets. Especially with oil, the supply is easily predicted as is the demand. It's all the other market forces that cannot be predicted

    Comment


    • Originally posted by scfire86 View Post
      Glenn Beck gets it. Oil that hasn't been discovered yet is NOT the reason for falling prices.

      As I've stated before. Capitalism is a great engine of progress, but it can kill the goose that lays the golden egg. We're seeing that with oil producing entities.
      :As a side note, Watching Glenn Beck the other day. He was commenting on the falling price of oil. The reason the price is dropping is we are using less, the reason we are using less is the economy is falling. Something to think about."

      Please read again. It says nothing about the oil that hasn't been discovered yet. Merely says that because of the poor economy we are using less fuel.

      What that means is to cut energy consumption you merely destroy the economy. Thank You very much democrats for obtaining your objective. Now we all suffer

      Comment


      • Originally posted by scfire86 View Post
        When has this happened?
        It has happened many times that the USGS has underestimated. Give me a little time to find the reference to that.

        Comment


        • Originally posted by ScareCrow57 View Post
          What that means is to cut energy consumption you merely destroy the economy. Thank You very much democrats for obtaining your objective. Now we all suffer
          How do you figure? This administration has gone to great lengths to keep its energy secret from the public. Cheney ignored a subpoena that requested the minutes from his Energy Task Force claiming "executive privilege." Several of the participants became convicted felons one of which has been sentenced to over 20 years in a federal pen.

          Originally posted by ScareCrow57 View Post
          Supply and Demand is the overly simplistic view that one learns in the third grade. Commodities are like stocks. If it was as simple as supply and demand it would be easy to make a fortune in these markets. Especially with oil, the supply is easily predicted as is the demand. It's all the other market forces that cannot be predicted.
          I would like you find a commodity broker who would confirm those facts. "All the other market forces" are what makes commodity trading the risky (in financial terms) business it is.
          They told me if I voted for Hillary Clinton the president would be emotional, impulsive, and unpredictable. They were right. I voted for Hillary Clinton and got a president that is emotional, impulsive, and unpredictable.

          I'm not saying you're stupid. I'm saying you have bad luck when it comes to thinking.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by scfire86 View Post
            How do you figure? This administration has gone to great lengths to keep its energy secret from the public. Cheney ignored a subpoena that requested the minutes from his Energy Task Force claiming "executive privilege." Several of the participants became convicted felons one of which has been sentenced to over 20 years in a federal pen.
            And this is different from previous Presidents and their administrations HOW???


            I would like you find a commodity broker who would confirm those facts. "All the other market forces" are what makes commodity trading the risky (in financial terms) business it is.
            I said "Supply and Demand is the overly simplistic view that one learns in the third grade. Commodities are like stocks. If it was as simple as supply and demand it would be easy to make a fortune in these markets. Especially with oil, the supply is easily predicted as is the demand. It's all the other market forces that cannot be predicted."

            The supply is easy to figure, how much we are pumping will continue. The demand will remain grow in a growing economy. Those two things are easy to figure. The rest of the puzzle is far more complex. Which makes for the risk. At least we agree on that.

            I didn't forget about your source for the under estimation by the USGS. I read it, but I can't find it again. I'm using Google and I'm not coming up with the proper search term.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by ChiefKN View Post
              Perhaps you missed the part of my post that discussed bringing some california oil to market within a year.

              You are applying rational theory to a process (speculation) that relies on "irrational" actions or guesswork based on hunches and guesses. If these prices or supplies were a sure thing then it wouldn't be called "speculation".

              I'm not going to start calling brokers to satisfy a debate on an internet forum. So, you can keep your opinion.

              Let me further state that I do NOT believe the announcement is the sole reason for the drop in prices. But I really do believe that speculation is the driving force behind these prices.
              I concur 100% with that. I believe that speculation was driving the price up. I do believe that talks of looking for and using other sources decreased the optimism of the speculators and led to a cooling of prices. It is too coincidental that oil prices dropped as soon as talk of drilling off shore started.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by ScareCrow57 View Post
                And this is different from previous Presidents and their administrations HOW???
                The difference is this administration promised to be open and honest in bringing "dignity" back to the White House. It has been anything but that.
                They told me if I voted for Hillary Clinton the president would be emotional, impulsive, and unpredictable. They were right. I voted for Hillary Clinton and got a president that is emotional, impulsive, and unpredictable.

                I'm not saying you're stupid. I'm saying you have bad luck when it comes to thinking.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Dave1983 View Post
                  Thats what I figured. But I couldnt pass on a chance to learn a bit more about the mystery that is GeorgeWendtCFI, so I had to ask...just in case.
                  I am the most public guy here. There is no mystery.
                  PROUD, HONORED AND HUMBLED RECIPIENT OF THE PURPLE HYDRANT AWARD - 10/2007.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by scfire86 View Post
                    I looked through your links and could find nothing that states the current decrease in oil pricing is being caused by lifting of the drilling ban.
                    Correct. But I didn't write that those sources said it. I was the one who said it.

                    My sources established that;
                    1. Market prices are inflated due to the influence of speculators
                    2. Speculators base their bidding on their ability to sell oil futures at a price higher than what they paid for them.
                    3. Our country has shown strong interest in increasing our domestic production, which eventually makes the commodity of oil less scarce, thus it's price will fall, as the law of Supply & Demand dictate.
                    4. This "perceived" increase in production has nulled the desire for speculators to make risky overpriced bids on oil futures, causing the market price for West Texas Crude to fall.

                    A real world example of this is the drop in price of Caterpillar's stock in 2005 when Human Rights organizations chose to publicly blame them for Palestinian deaths. Their actions had no bearing on the immediate demand for Caterpillar products, but the stock price fell that very day.

                    I know that stock prices and actual commodities are not the same thing, but the oil futures market has caused the crude oil market take on characteristics like that of a stock.

                    Market conditions are never determined by one factor alone.
                    The American people will never knowingly adopt Socialism. But under the name of 'liberalism' they will adopt every fragment of the Socialist program, until one day America will be a Socialist nation, without knowing how it happened. --Norman Mattoon Thomas, 6 time presidential candidate for the Socialist Party of America

                    Comment


                    • Oil Prices

                      Just a few comments based on my experience and my opinions.
                      1. Prices definitely have been influenced and driven by world speculation, notably the belief that the Chinese economy was going to keep growing
                      2. Chinese economy is starting to stagnate due to slowdown in hard goods purchases from US and Europe.
                      3. US and Europe are buying less because costs of fuel which affects many facets of life are cutting into disposable income.
                      4. Oil from the AWR may end up being some of the most expensive in the world due to exploration, development and transportation costs. Its a minimum of 10 to 20 years away.
                      5. In 1998, oil, adjusted for inflation was $15.70 bbl. Talking heads were projecting 15 to 25 years before oil would ever exceed $25 bbl.

                      IMHO, we in the west better get off our butts and start developing alternate energy sources. The econmomy will recover, the purchasing will go back up, the pain from $4 gas will be forgotten and we'll do it all over again 20 or 30 years down the road.
                      I believe it wa Einstein who said " Doing the same thing in the same way again and again and expecting different results in the definition of insanity"

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by scfire86 View Post
                        Really?? I would like to read or find a commodities broker who is buying futures for oil that hasn't even been discovered yet. Your fealty to this point is only proving YOU have no understanding of how the commodities work.

                        Be reasonable. I think everybody here knows and understands the concept of supply and demand.

                        However, supply and demand has value only when the supply component is readily available or imminently available. The price of gas doesn't come down today because fuel cell technology may be here in another decade. The price of electricity isn't moderated because Moore's Law dictates that solar panels will be cheap, many times more efficient and readily available for all homeowners by 2020. In order for supply to drive down price, there first needs to be supply. In the context of the OCS, it was specifically argued that the discussion of opening the OCS was responsible for the reduction in global oil prices.

                        This isn't a difficult concept: The prospect of a potential supply of oil which wouldn't be on the market for 10-20 years will not drive down the current price of oil. That price is driven instead by the availability of oil today--will war in Angola interrupt production, will a hurricane shut down rigs in the Gulf, will Israel bomb Iran and cause the latter to go offline?--and not by what could happen two decades from now. Even if those leases were signed this morning, the oil market wouldn't see that oil for many years, and until it contributes to the global supply, it doesn't exist.

                        Are you still confused on this subject? I surely hope not.
                        I am not confused at all. First off, here are facts.

                        Pres. Bush announced the lifting of the ban on offshore drilling on July 14, 2008. Oil was just over $136. The next day it dropped below $135. By July
                        19, it was below $130. And the spiral continues to this day.

                        Futures trading is basically speculation. It is heavily influenced by supply and demand-moreso than any other factor. But these traders do not simply speculate on what is going on 30 days from now, they are looking at trends long term.

                        One of those trends is the fact that the US is overly dependent on foreign oil. Right now, the US is kind of at the mercy of the world oil market because there is little that we can do to influence the price. There is also the fact that the US is basically one of only a handful of consistent economies that can support these high prices (at least short term) and not collapse. So that leaves traders believing that there is little long term probability that prices will come down.

                        The lifting of the ban on drilling was the first salvo fired demoinstrating that the US is about to wake up get serious about their energy policy. By drilling, we are showing a long term commitment to two things; increasing the world oil supply dramatically, and not being held hostage by foreign oil. While the lifting of the ban does not effect the September futures directly, it is showing a long term trend that is doing nothing but driving the price of oil down-right now.

                        A major pipeline disruption, an escalation of the war in the Middle East, or something similar could certainly send the price right back up. But for roght now, the long term trend of the US drilling off the OCS, drilling in ANWR and recovering shale oil in the West is the infulencing factor in the market. This is proven by the numbers.

                        We would probably agree that it is a complete waste of time to commit to drlling without commiting to alternative energy sources. But all the talk about wind, solar, and bio fuels is bunk. They cannot possibly produce enough energy to have much effect in our petroleum consumption. There are two major places we have to develop.

                        First, we need to dramatically increase our construction of nuclear power plants. This technology has become extremely safe since the days of TMI and the China Syndrome. The technology has proven to be very succesful in Eurpoe and should be embraced here.

                        Second, is finding an alternative means to fuel vehicles. Electric powered cars are never going to be the answer. The technology limits the size of the car (due to battery size), limits the speed you can drive and limits the distance you can drive.

                        We have alot of oil in the ground. But what we have even more of is natural gas. By converting cars and trucks to natural gas and building the infrastructure to supply them, we save a ton of oil.

                        Secondly, hydrogen powered vehicle research has been very promising. Whether it is cars converted to burn hydrogen in an IC engine or run on fuel cells, the fuel is incredibly inexpensive and plentiful. It is also extremely environmentally friendly.

                        I am confused that one of the big three automakers who are in financial ruin doesn't make a major commitment to this technology. An increase in supply of these cars will drive the accelerated construction of the infrastructure.

                        So, you see, I'm not confused at all.
                        PROUD, HONORED AND HUMBLED RECIPIENT OF THE PURPLE HYDRANT AWARD - 10/2007.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by GeorgeWendtCFI View Post
                          Futures trading is basically speculation. It is heavily influenced by supply and demand-moreso than any other factor. But these traders do not simply speculate on what is going on 30 days from now, they are looking at trends long term.
                          You're absolutely correct. These traders look to what's going on possibly 18-24 months in advance. Not ten years. Idle chatter about the possibility of drilling in the OCS had zero effect upon current oil prices. What did have an effect was dropping demand in once white-hot economies, such as China. When the forecasted demand isn't met for consecutive periods, a surplus develops and prices drop. It is supply and demand.

                          Originally posted by GeorgeWendtCFI View Post
                          So, you see, I'm not confused at all.
                          Sadly you are if you believe any commodities broker is recommending buy or sell positions on an event that may or may not happen in the next decade.
                          Last edited by scfire86; 08-19-2008, 10:21 AM.
                          They told me if I voted for Hillary Clinton the president would be emotional, impulsive, and unpredictable. They were right. I voted for Hillary Clinton and got a president that is emotional, impulsive, and unpredictable.

                          I'm not saying you're stupid. I'm saying you have bad luck when it comes to thinking.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by GeorgeWendtCFI View Post
                            I am not confused at all.
                            I am confused
                            So, you see, I'm not confused at all.
                            At least you cleared that up. Good post.

                            We've got to differentiate between energy for infrastructure (electricity) and energy for transportation (petroleum). I don't think petroleum is used to generate electricity, is it? I thought that was primarily coal, with some nuclear/hydro..etc. Either way I think research into alternative energy sources like wind..etc could be a benefit here as would building more modern nuclear facilities. It would make electricity cheaper and reduce coal (and petro if it's used) consumption.

                            For automobiles I think we're stuck with petroleum for a while. Sure research is going on with fuel cells, and other things but there is such an entrenched infrastructure that it will take a lot to switch everything over. I agree that electric/hybrids are a stop-gap.. at least out of urban areas though may be viable in urban settings where range/speed/longevity aren't as high.
                            So you call this your free country
                            Tell me why it costs so much to live
                            -3dd

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by GeorgeWendtCFI View Post
                              First, we need to dramatically increase our construction of nuclear power plants. This technology has become extremely safe since the days of TMI and the China Syndrome. The technology has proven to be very succesful in Eurpoe and should be embraced here.
                              I think a little more than 80% of France’s energy is derived via nukes.

                              A couple of points you might not find so rosy:

                              100% of those plants are owned and run by the state; there is no private enterprise involved.

                              The French are more efficent in reusing the waste than we are, but they have just as many problems finding a place to bury the waste as we do. The “solution” was to effectively bribe the province receiving the waste with a government-funded and -run lab to “study” the waste, since the French have been unable to force any province to simply receive the waste and have it buried deep underground.

                              The cost of the nuke power is acceptable to the French because they lack options–the country has no coal or natural gas and few hydro plants. That contrasts with the US, which has a sizeable supply of coal, lots of hydro and natural gas to power plants, which makes nuke plants less cost-effective than they are in France.

                              The cost of construction, combined with the cost of operation, has meant that no utility has finished a new plant in the US in 17 years. As far as existing plants are concerned, the failure of the Yankee plants in New England (plant in CT closed 10 years early, plant in ME which wasn’t cost-effective to run and closed early, and plant in MA–the first in the US–which was closed early because of structural issue), along with the WPPSS (largest utility bond default in US history, two plants abandoned about 60% completed 25 years ago) shows enormous financial risks for utilities.

                              If you’re comfortable with the Feds running a network (whom you constantly like to remind us can screw up a free picnic) of nukes in this country as the French do, then the idea might work. They’ll supervise the construction and operation of the plants with the high-efficiency and superb oversight than only the Federal government can do. Otherwise, the private sector isn’t going to spend its money on nukes for the time being.

                              The most important factor to remember is that just as alternative sources of fuel don’t become financially viable until the price of a barrel of oil goes through the roof, the viability of nuclear power in the US depends upon more conventional methods of generation becoming much more expensive than currently available.
                              They told me if I voted for Hillary Clinton the president would be emotional, impulsive, and unpredictable. They were right. I voted for Hillary Clinton and got a president that is emotional, impulsive, and unpredictable.

                              I'm not saying you're stupid. I'm saying you have bad luck when it comes to thinking.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by scfire86 View Post
                                You're absolutely correct. These traders look to what's going on possibly 18-24 months in advance. Not ten years. Idle chatter about the possibility of drilling in the OCS had zero effect upon current oil prices. What did have an effect was dropping demand in once white-hot economies, such as China. When the forecasted demand isn't met for consecutive periods, a surplus develops and prices drop. It is supply and demand.


                                Sadly you are if you believe any commodities broker is recommending buy or sell positions on an event that may or may not happen in the next decade.
                                So the fact that the price of oil began a $35 or so nosedive the day after the Pres. announced this lifting of the ban (hardly idle chatter) is a complete conincidence? That is what you want the confused masses to believe? Priceless.
                                PROUD, HONORED AND HUMBLED RECIPIENT OF THE PURPLE HYDRANT AWARD - 10/2007.

                                Comment

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