Vehicle Odds - After Round Five

[Pelican631]

So here's a few numbers to play with for everyone still holding out hope for a vehicle award.

7,799 vehicle applications this year. Based on the wording of the computer-rejection DJ letters, less than 1/3 made it to peer review. That leaves roughly 2,500 applications still in the running. So far, 192 vehicle projects have been awarded, for a total of about $32 million. Since the total AFG allocation this year was $547 million and 25% can go to vehicles, that leaves a little under $104 million left in the pot for vehicles this year. Last year, the average vehicle award was about $184,000. If that number stays about the same, that means that about 550 to 560 vehicles could still be awarded out of 2,300 applications still in the running. I'm guessing the dollars per vehicle number is up slightly this year, let's say $200,000. That leaves about 520 vehicles left out of 2300 applications. So, depending on what numbers you believe/guess/hope for, anyone who hasn't gotten a DJ yet has somewhere between four-to-one and five-to-one odds of getting an award.

I'm not sure that gives anyone warm fuzzies, but I had to run the numbers just to know :-)

Andy

[ktb9780]

My, my I am so glad to see that someoen else did the Nerd work this week instead of me. Thanks Pelican631. I had run the overall figures but had not yet done the vehicle breakdowns.:)

[Pelican631]

Well figuring out the new odds for vehicles after Round 6 was pretty easy...same as last week! :)

Actually, since I've seen postings that some people got 1199A notices for vehicles last week, if you haven't seen an 1199A update yet, your odds will be lower than what they were after Round 5...hard to say how much lower though.

Andy

[Pelican631]

And after Round 7, odds haven't change much...roughly five to one.

Andy

[Hoseman619]

Let me ask this in regards to a vehicle award. Provided that our narrative and justifications are good and the reviewers agree, would they deny app based on price requested, or would they award grant with a reduction?? Going for 6 man custom engine, 1250 pump, 750 water. Foam tank.

[ktb9780]

Let me ask this in regards to a vehicle award. Provided that our narrative and justifications are good and the reviewers agree, would they deny app based on price requested, or would they award grant with a reduction?? Going for 6 man custom engine, 1250 pump, 750 water. Foam tank.

Provided oyu made it past the first round DJs from the computer, they woudl probabaly ask for reduction.;)